Sad Donkeys

There were several notable elections early last week. Specifically, governorships were up for grabs in Virginia and New Jersey, and a special congressional election was held in New York’s 23rd congressional district. Nov. 3 marked a victory for the Republican Party in unseating the Democratic incumbent governors in New Jersey and Virginia, with the exception being the Republicans’ loss in New York.

Of course, following any election, both political parties were busy putting their spin on the ramifications. Republicans have called Nov. 3 a referendum on President Obama’s fiscal “irresponsibility” and thus a turning point in the American political sphere after a series of Republican defeats. Democrats have suggested that these elections are irrelevant on the national level and were dominated strictly by local issues.

Actually it is somewhere in between these two extremes. Nov. 3’s elections are not an ominous referendum on the Obama administration and its policies. The Democrats, however, should not be so quick to completely minimize the results of the election because there are several very important lessons to be learned.

As relates to Republican exuberance about winning the two governorships, Republicans are mistaken in asserting that the election represented a referendum on President Obama and his policies. CNN exit polling indicates that in Virginia, 56 percent of voters said that President Obama was not a critical factor in their voting choice, and 22 percent of them said that the most important factor for their vote was transportation or state taxes. In New Jersey, 60 percent of voters claimed that President Obama was a nonexistent factor in their vote, and 46 percent of voters stated their major voting concern was either property taxes or corruption.

Clearly the exit polling numbers are not supportive of the Republican spin. But it is somewhat naïve to think that governor races would be determined based on national politics. A state election is not a commentary on national politics. If anything, the special representative race in New York would most closely be a reflection of national politics, and in that election, Democrat Bill Owens won in a district that hasn’t had a Democratic representative in over 100 years.

Democrats, however, should not dismiss the national implications of these election results and the potential foreshadowing of the next elections. Democrats must be concerned about the low turnout numbers by the Democratic base. In New Jersey, 14 percent of the total voter turnout was black and 9 percent of the total voter turnout was between the ages of 18 and 29. Both of these groups were absolutely critical in Obama’s election. Virginia had a similar low turnout in these two groups.

Democrats need to draw two conclusions from Tuesday’s election. Firstly, Democratic candidates cannot simply expect to ride President Obama’s coattails to electoral victory. Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds, the two Democratic incumbent governors that lost, both ran very poor campaigns in which neither won the independent vote, and neither had large turnout from the Democratic base. For Democrats to have electoral success, they must have strong candidates coupled with a well-planned campaign strategy. Otherwise, Democrats will continue to see their majorities wither away.

Secondly, the Democratic base must be constantly energized and involved in campaigns. President Obama energized his base and, as a result of the high-voter turnout, helped Democrats on all tickets. Without Obama on the 2010 congressional election ballot, Democrats will be on their own to focus on issues that their constituencies are concerned about and will need to run well-organized campaigns. Keeping their base enthusiastic and involved — especially among young voters who are more likely to vote and volunteer — will be essential.

Jack Melamed is a sophomore in Newcomb-Tulane College. He can be reached for comment at jmelamed@tulane.edu.